HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE OF THE MINAS GERAIS PORTION OF THE SÃO FRANCISCO RIVER BASIN TO RAINFLOW-RUNOUT MODELING
Keywords:
Surface runoff, Flooding, Hydrological Modeling, Flow Prediction, HEC-HMSAbstract
Flow forecasting in extreme events caused by intense precipitation is one of the greatest challenges of our time and can help water resource managers in decision-making, minimizing the risks arising from these events. This study aimed to implement the HEC-HMS model in the Minas Gerais portion of the São Francisco River basin. The methods used in the hydrological modeling were: Deficit and Constant, for flow separation; Clark Unit Hidrograph, for hydrograph formation; Recession, for base flow; and Muskingum-Cunge, for flow propagation. The precipitation input data were obtained by the CHIRPS product and the flow data, for calibration and validation, from the fluviometric stations, in Hidroweb. The calibration period was from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2017, and the validation period was from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2022, reproducing the main extreme flood events that occurred in recent years. The model results were evaluated based on the Nash-Stucliffe Efficiency Index and PBIAS, being classified as “satisfactory to very good”. Flow forecasting was also performed using the ACCESS-CM2 model considering two scenarios SSP2-4.5 (moderate) and SSP5-8.5 (pessimistic) for a future period of 10 years (2025 a 2034), and the results indicated that the type of scenario had a great influence on the magnitude of the peak discharge. The HEC-HMS software performed well and simulated the values coherently, confirming its capacity in flow forecasting.
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