ANALYSIS OF WATER SECURITY IN RIO SÃO FRANCISCO CONSIDERING THE EVOLUTION OF WATER DEMANDS IN THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM
Keywords:
Water Security; São Francisco River; Demand for water use; scenario studiesAbstract
Water security is a concept that, when operationalized, does not favor the reduction of risks homogeneously among the water user sectors. In this way, the water security of some sectors will be provided by the insecurity of others. In Brazil, the São Francisco river basin experienced a long period of drought between 2012 and 2018, which was configured as the worst hydrological situation in the river flow records. In view of the effects of the drought experienced, there was a need to adapt the operation of the São Francisco to a new hydrological and meteorological reference, which culminated in the publication of new operating rules for the water reserve water system through ANA Resolution No. 2,081/2017. Associated with hydrological factors, the evolution of demands in the short and medium term foreseen in the Basin Plan (2016-2025) and the PNSH works may put even more pressure on the São Francisco water system. Given the above, this research aims to analyze water security in the São Francisco River considering the multiple uses of water internal and external to its watershed. The methodology adopted for this study was developed in three stages: characterization and projection of demands in the short and medium term; construction and simulation of scenarios for the evolution of water demand on the São Francisco River; evaluation of the impact of the evolution of water demands in the short and medium term on the São Francisco water system. With regard to demand growth, there was an increase of 7% in the scenarios of lower growth rate without the PNSH, of up to 109% in the scenario of greater demand with the PNSH for the horizon of 2025, and of 13% until 166 % for the same scenarios, respectively, in the horizon of 2030. These changes in demands increase the risk of non-compliance, especially in the driest years, where this system failure can reach 50% of the time. With regard to the water security of the São Francisco River, the fulfillment of consumptive uses and the generation of hydroelectric energy is funded by the insecurity of the aquatic ecosystem.
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