Português
Keywords:
inundações, Desastres naturais, sistema de alertaAbstract
Caused by the development of the society around rivers, natural hazards caused by floods occur frequently around the world, causing elevated economics e social losses. For loss reduction, warning systems perform flood monitoring and forecasting. The present study’s goal is analyzing the economic viability of the installation of a warning system for Rio Grande do Sul, considering two distinct scenarios: Scenario I consider using already available data and Scenario II consider the installation of a new network of hydrometeorological stations. Both of them consider the development and operation of the warning system. Results were obtained according to the protection measures taken after the warning, related to the percentual of avoided losses, being 36.68% the biggest possible value, according to the adopted references, and according to hits rate of predictions made by the model. It was considered an initial hit rate of 55%, also taken from references of existing prediction systems. Calculating for a twenty years period counting from the begining of the system, with improvement of hit rate for this period of 0, 10, 20 and 30%, the worst results too Scenarios I and II were, respectively, 27 and 18 reais saved for each real invested, and the best were 41 and 28 saved.
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