CLIMATES EXTREMES INDICES AND THEIR IMPACTS ON WATER AVAILABILITY IN THE CORRENTE RIVER BASIN, WESTERN BAHIA
Keywords:
Water Availability, Indices of Extreme Climate, Water Security, Statistically Significant Trends, Corrente River BasinAbstract
Water availability in river basins is strongly influenced by climate variability, especially by extreme precipitation events. In this context, regions with high demand for water resources become particularly vulnerable to changes in the hydrological regime. Western Bahia stands out for its intense use of water for multiple purposes, which reinforces the need to understand the trends associated with climate extremes. Thus, this study aims to analyze trends in precipitation extreme indices in the Corrente River basin, with a view to assessing possible implications for regional water availability. To this end, 11 indices of climatic extremes related to precipitation were calculated using the RClimDex software, widely used in studies of climate variability and change. Trend analysis was performed using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test. Nine rainfall stations with 45-year historical series and a failure rate of less than 25% were selected. The results showed statistically significant trends (α ≤ 0.05) for the CDD (Consecutive Dry Days) and CWD (Consecutive Wet Days) indices, indicating that local precipitation does not follow a normal/Gaussian distribution. The CDD index showed an upward trend in the duration of dry periods, while the CWD index indicated a downward trend in the duration of rainy periods. These results point to an intensification of rainfall irregularity and a possible scenario of reduced water availability in the basin. Given this context, the results reinforce the importance of incorporating climate extreme analyses into water resource planning and management in order to support strategies aimed at water security in regions subject to increasing climate variability.
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